Luna-Niño, R., Gershunov, A., Ralph, F. M., Weyant, A., Guirguis, K., DeFlorio, M. J., Cayan, D. R., & Williams, A. P. (2025). Heresy in ENSO teleconnections: atmospheric rivers as disruptors of canonical seasonal precipitation anomalies in the Southwestern US. Climate Dynamics, 63(2), 115. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07583-1

Keeley, J. E., Flannigan, M., Brown, T. J., Rolinski, T., Cayan, D., Syphard, A. D., Guzman-Morales, J., & Gershunov, A. (2024). Climate and weather drivers in southern California Santa Ana Wind and non-Santa Wind fires. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 33(8). https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23190

DeHaan, L. L., Copeland, C. D., Burney, J. A., Nakamura, Y., Yashiro, M., Shimizu, C., Miyata, K., Burns, J. C., & Cayan, D. R. (2024). Age-Dependent Variations in Kawasaki Disease Incidence in Japan. JAMA Network Open, 7(2), e2355001. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.55001

DeFlorio, M. J., Sengupta, A., Castellano, C. M., Wang, J., Zhang, Z., Gershunov, A., Guirguis, K., Luna Niño, R., Clemesha, R. E. S., Pan, M., Xiao, M., Kawzenuk, B., Gibson, P. B., Scheftic, W., Broxton, P. D., Switanek, M. B., Yuan, J., Dettinger, M. D., Hecht, C. W., … Anderson, M. L. (2024). From California’s Extreme Drought to Major Flooding: Evaluating and Synthesizing Experimental Seasonal and Subseasonal Forecasts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers and Extreme Precipitation during Winter 2022/23. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105(1), E84–E104. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0208.1

Creech, T. G., Williamson, M. A., Sesnie, S. E., Rubin, E. S., Cayan, D. R., & Fleishman, E. (2023). Effects of changing climate extremes and vegetation phenology on wildlife associated with grasslands in the southwestern United States. Environmental Research Letters, 18(10), 104028. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf8db

Cayan, D. R., DeHaan, L., Tyree, M., & Nicholas, K. A. (2023). A 4‐week advance in the growing season in Napa Valley, California, USA. International Journal of Climatology, joc.8162. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8162

Clemesha, R. E. S., Iacobellis, S. F., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., Small, I. J., & Cavazos, T. (2023). North American Monsoon Impacts Southern California’s Coastal Low Clouds. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(12), e2022GL102059. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102059

Shulgina, T., Gershunov, A., Hatchett, B. J., Guirguis, K., Subramanian, A. C., Margulis, S. A., Fang, Y., Cayan, D. R., Pierce, D. W., Dettinger, M., Anderson, M. L., & Ralph, F. M. (2023). Observed and projected changes in snow accumulation and snowline in California’s snowy mountains. Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06776-w

Byrne, S. M., Merrifield, M. A., Carter, M. L., Cayan, D. R., Flick, R. E., Gershunov, A., & Giddings, S. N. (2023). Southern California winter precipitation variability reflected in 100-year ocean salinity record. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1), 143. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00803-8

Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Feldman, D. R., & Risser, M. D. (2023). Future Increases in North American Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Downscaled with LOCA. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 24(5), 951–975. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0194.1

MacDonald, G., Wall, T., Enquist, C. A. F., LeRoy, S. R., Bradford, J. B., Breshears, D. D., Brown, T., Cayan, D., Dong, C., Falk, D. A., Fleishman, E., Gershunov, A., Hunter, M., Loehman, R. A., Van Mantgem, P. J., Middleton, B. R., Safford, H. D., Schwartz, M. W., & Trouet, V. (2023). Drivers of California’s changing wildfires: a state-of-the-knowledge synthesis. International Journal of Wildland Fire. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22155

Cayan, D. R., DeHaan, L. L., Gershunov, A., Guzman-Morales, J., Keeley, J. E., Mumford, J., & Syphard, A. D. (2022). Autumn precipitation: the competition with Santa Ana winds in determining fire outcomes in southern California. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 31(11), 1056–1067. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22065

Corringham, T. W., McCarthy, J., Shulgina, T., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Ralph, F. M. (2022). Climate change contributions to future atmospheric river flood damages in the western United States. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 13747. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-15474-2

Burney, J. A., Roberts, S. C., DeHaan, L. L., Shimizu, C., Bainto, E. V., Newburger, J. W., Dominguez, S., Jone, P.-N., Jaggi, P., Szmuszkovicz, J. R., Rowley, A. H., Samuy, N., Scalici, P., Tremoulet, A. H., Cayan, D. R., Burns, J. C., KIDCARE Study Investigators, Arditi, M., Szmuszkovicz, J., … Halasa, N. (2022). Epidemiological and Clinical Features of Kawasaki Disease During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States. JAMA Network Open, 5(6), e2217436. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.17436

Burney, J. A., DeHaan, L. L., Shimizu, C., Bainto, E. V., Newburger, J. W., DeBiasi, R. L., Dominguez, S. R., Portman, M. A., Melish, M., Bratincsak, A., Fabi, M., Corinaldesi, E., Yu, J. J., Gee, P., Kitano, N., Tremoulet, A. H., Cayan, D. R., Burns, J. C., & Kawasaki Dis Climate Study, G. (2021). Temporal clustering of Kawasaki disease cases around the world. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01961-5

Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Goodrich, J., Das, T., & Munevar, A. (2021). Evaluating global climate models for hydrological studies of the Upper Colorado River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 26. https://doi.org/10.1111/1752-1688.12974

Pierce, D. W., Su, L., Cayan, D. R., Risser, M. D., Livneh, B., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2021). An extreme-preserving long-term gridded daily precipitation dataset for the conterminous United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 22(7), 1883–1895. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-20-0212.1

Barnard, P. L., Dugan, J. E., Page, H. M., Wood, N. J., Hart, J. A. F., Cayan, D. R., Erikson, L., Hubbard, D. M., Myers, M. R., Melack, J. M., & Iacobellis, S. F. (2021). Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 13. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-94942-7

Keeley, J. E., Guzman-Morales, J., Gershunov, A., Syphard, A. D., Cayan, D., Pierce, D. W., Flannigan, M., & Brown, T. J. (2021). Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires. Science Advances, 7(30). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abh2262

Gershunov, A., Morales, J. G., Hatchett, B., Guirguis, K., Aguilera, R., Shulgina, T., Abatzoglou, J. T., Cayan, D., Pierce, D., Williams, P., Small, I., Clemesha, R., Schwarz, L., Benmarhnia, T., & Tardy, A. (2021). Hot and cold flavors of southern California’s Santa Ana winds: their causes, trends, and links with wildfire. Climate Dynamics, 16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05802-z

Burns, J. C., DeHaan, L. L., Shimizu, C., Bainto, E. V., Tremoulet, A. H., Cayan, D. R., & Burney, J. A. (2021). Temporal clusters of Kawasaki disease cases share distinct phenotypes that suggest response to diverse triggers. Journal of Pediatrics, 229, 48-+. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpeds.2020.09.043

Ban, Z. X., Das, T., Cayan, D., Xiao, M., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2020). Understanding the asymmetry of annual streamflow responses to seasonal warming in the western United States. Water Resources Research, 56(12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020wr027158

McEvoy, D. J., Pierce, D. W., Kalansky, J. F., Cayan, D. R., & Abatzoglou, J. T. (2020). Projected changes in reference evapotranspiration in California and Nevada: Implications for drought and wildland fire danger. Earths Future, 8(11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001736

Walton, D., Berg, N., Pierce, D., Maurer, E., Hall, A., Lin, Y. H., Rahimi, S., & Cayan, D. (2020). Understanding differences in California climate projections produced by dynamical and statistical downscaling. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 125(19). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd032812

Fogarty, F. A., Cayan, D. R., DeHaan, L. L., & Fleishman, E. (2020). Associations of breeding-bird abundance with climate vary among species and trait-based groups in southern California. PLOS ONE, 15(3). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230614

Myers, M. R., Barnard, P. L., Beighley, E., Cayan, D. R., Dugan, J. E., Feng, D. M., Hubbard, D. M., Iacobellis, S. F., Melack, J. M., & Page, H. M. (2019). A multidisciplinary coastal vulnerability assessment for local government focused on ecosystems, Santa Barbara area, California. Ocean & Coastal Management, 182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.104921

Corringham, T. W., Ralph, F. M., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Talbot, C. A. (2019). Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States. Science Advances, 5(12). https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax4631

Zhang, Z. H., Pierce, D. W., & Cayan, D. R. (2019). A deficit of seasonal temperature forecast skill over west coast regions in NMME. Weather and Forecasting, 34(4), 833–848. https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0172.1

Gershunov, A., Shulgina, T., Clemesha, R. E. S., Guirguis, K., Pierce, D. W., Dettinger, M. D., Lavers, D. A., Cayan, D. R., Polade, S. D., Kalansky, J., & Ralph, F. M. (2019). Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of atmospheric rivers. Scientific Reports, 9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w

Corringham, T. W., & Cayan, D. R. (2019). The effect of El Nino on flood damages in the western United States. Weather Climate and Society, 11(3), 489–504. https://doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-18-0071.1

Feng, D. M., Beighley, E., Raoufi, R., Melack, J., Zhao, Y. H., Iacobellis, S., & Cayan, D. (2019). Propagation of future climate conditions into hydrologic response from coastal southern California watersheds. Climatic Change, 153(1–2), 199–218. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02371-3

Roche, J. W., Rice, R., Meng, X. D., Cayan, D. R., Dettinger, M. D., Alden, D., Patel, S. C., Mason, M. A., Conklin, M. H., & Bales, R. C. (2019). Climate, snow, and soil moisture data set for the Tuolumne and Merced river watersheds, California, USA. Earth System Science Data, 11(1), 101–110. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-101-2019

Knowles, N., Cronkite-Ratcliff, C., Pierce, D. W., & Cayan, D. R. (2018). Responses of unimpaired flows, storage, and managed flows to scenarios of climate change in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Watershed. Water Resources Research, 54(10), 7631–7650. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr022852

Sumargo, E., & Cayan, D. R. (2018). The influence of cloudiness on hydrologic fluctuations in the mountains of the western United States. Water Resources Research, 54(10), 8478–8499. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr022687

Guirguis, K., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., & Pierce, D. W. (2018). Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US. Climate Dynamics, 50(9–10), 3853–3864. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3

Franco, G. F., Cayan, D. R., Pierce, D. W., Westerling, A. L., & Thorne, J. H. (2018). Cumulative global CO2 emissions and their climate impact from local through regional scales: A Report for California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment.

Pierce, D. W., Kalansky, J. F., & Cayan, D. R. (2018). Climate, Drought, and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment: A Report for California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. California Energy Commission.

Polade, S. D., Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., Dettinger, M. D., & Pierce, D. W. (2017). Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions. Scientific Reports, 7. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y

Huss, M., Bookhagen, B., Huggel, C., Jacobsen, D., Bradley, R. S., Clague, J. J., Vuille, M., Buytaert, W., Cayan, D. R., Greenwood, G., Mark, B. G., Milner, A. M., Weingartner, R., & Winder, M. (2017). Toward mountains without permanent snow and ice. Earths Future, 5(5), 418–435. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ef000514

Sumargo, E., & Cayan, D. R. (2017). Variability of Cloudiness over Mountain Terrain in the Western United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 18(5), 1227–1245. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-16-0194.1

Clemesha, R. E. S., Gershunov, A., Iacobellis, S. F., & Cayan, D. R. (2017). Daily variability of California coastal low cloudiness: A balancing act between stability and subsidence. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(7), 3330–3338. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl073075

Lundquist, J. D., Roche, J. W., Forrester, H., Moore, C., Keenan, E., Perry, G., Cristea, N., Henn, B., Lapo, K., McGurk, B., Cayan, D. R., & Dettinger, M. D. (2016). Yosemite Hydroclimate Network: Distributed stream and atmospheric data for the Tuolumne River watershed and surroundings. Water Resources Research, 52(9), 7478–7489. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016wr019261

Pierce, D. W., & Cayan, D. R. (2016). Downscaling humidity with Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA) over the conterminous United States. Climate Dynamics, 47(1–2), 411–431. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2845-1

Ralph, F. M., Prather, K. A., Cayan, D., Spackman, J. R., DeMott, P., Dettinger, M., Fairall, C., Leung, R., Rosenfeld, D., Rutledge, S., Waliser, D., White, A. B., Cordeira, J., Martin, A., Helly, J., & Intrieri, J. (2016). CalWater field studies designed to quantify the roles of atmospheric rivers and aerosols in modulating US West Coast precipitation in a changing climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(7), 1209–1228. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-14-00043.1

Melville, W. K., Lenain, L., Cayan, D. R., Kahru, M., Kleissl, J. P., Linden, P. F., & Statom, N. M. (2016). The Modular Aerial Sensing System. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 33(6), 1169–1184. https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-15-0067.1

Yang, Y., Russell, L. M., Xu, L., Lou, S. J., Lamjiri, M. A., Somerville, R. C. J., Miller, A. J., Cayan, D. R., DeFlorio, M. J., Ghan, S. J., Liu, Y., Singh, B., Wang, H. L., Yoon, J. H., & Rasch, P. J. (2016). Impacts of ENSO events on cloud radiative effects in preindustrial conditions: Changes in cloud fraction and their dependence on interactive aerosol emissions and concentrations. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 121(11), 6321–6335. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jd024503

Guzman-Morales, J., Gershunov, A., Theiss, J., Li, H. Q., & Cayan, D. (2016). Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their climatology, extremes, and behavior spanning six and a half decades. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(6), 2827–2834. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl067887

Clemesha, R. E. S., Gershunov, A., Iacobellis, S. F., Williams, A. P., & Cayan, D. R. (2016). The northward march of summer low cloudiness along the California coast. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(3), 1287–1295. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015gl067081

DeFlorio, M. J., Goodwin, I. D., Cayan, D. R., Miller, A. J., Ghan, S. J., Pierce, D. W., Russell, L. M., & Singh, B. (2016). Interannual modulation of subtropical Atlantic boreal summer dust variability by ENSO. Climate Dynamics, 46(1–2), 585–599. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2600-7

Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Maurer, E. P., Abatzoglou, J. T., & Hegewisch, K. C. (2015). Improved bias correction techniques for hydrological simulations of climate change. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 16(6), 2421–2442. https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-14-0236.1